Weekly Commentary: 10th Feb 2013

Previous commentary: Commentary on 3rd Feb 2013

Hi Readers,

As mentioned in my previous weekly commentary (see article), after the USD index formed a low test bar on 31st Jan, the dollar made a strong rally. After failing to break below $79, it looks like the bulls are back. Let’s see if the dollar can move above $81 in the coming week for better confirmation of the new direction.

The following is my watch list for the week:

10 Feb - EURUSD Daily

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  • EURUSD – As mentioned on 13th Jan (see article), there was a strong resistance at 1.35 level. Price broke above last week but this week it closed below it with a strong engulfing weekly bar. Price Action seems to suggest that the bears are back as that was a potential false break.

At this point in time, my bias is still weighted towards an up trend but I would also like to see how price interacts with the upward trend line. However, I’m also keen to find more short confirmations before I change my view.

10 Feb - Gold Daily

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  • Gold – this precious metal has now formed a very solid symmetric triangle. This pattern is a strong indication of indecision. At the moment, the long term trend line is holding very well. On the other hand, the downward channel (red channel) is also pushing price lower.

I’m going to wait for a breakout or even a false breakout before making a decision. Patience.

10 Feb - GBPAUD Daily

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  • GBPAUD – I really like it when a price cycles and swings healthily. That is what this currency pair is showing me at the moment. With that, I would like to find a short set up at the soft resistance level around 1.545 which is also at the top of the downward channel (Purple box).

This may look like a set up in the near to mid future.

For those who are celebrating Chinese New Year, wishing you a Happy and Prosperous New Year. May the Year of the Water Snake bring health, wealth and happiness to you all!


Thank you and Happy Trading in the week ahead!!


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