Weekly Commentary: 13th July 2014

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 6th July 2014

Hello Traders,

The USD index closed the week around $80.20 and this week seems like a correction market. Having said that, when looking at the bigger picture, I need to remember that price is till pretty choppy and, in line with my commentary last week, until I get a clear break above $81.50 or below $79.00, my bias will remain neutral for now.  With that, let’s see what I’ll get in the coming week.

The following is my watch list for the week:

13 Jul - EURUSD Daily Forex Chart

(Click image for larger view)

  • EURUSD – Looking back at my analysis on the 29th June (see article), I’m pretty glad that I did not react and sat aside on this currency pair. As you can see, the market has been pretty choppy and I haven’t had a clear price direction yet. In fact, if you took a long breakout trade above 1.367, it would have been a losing trade (of course, this would depend on where your placed initial stop too). Now, price seems to have made a false break above that level and it seems like price is starting to move downwards. Will price really move lower? Let’s wait and see.

13 Jul - USDCAD Daily Forex Chart

(Click image for larger view)

  • USDCAD – As mentioned on the 22nd June (see article), I spotted a soft horizontal around 1.07 and I was looking for a test at that price level. In fact, price has been doing just that and there were no clear signals as to what the bulls and bears were doing. However, the final test on Friday (which also happened to be a bullish trend bar) gave me comfort that the bulls are back and they look keen to take control of the market from here onwards. With that, let’s see what I’ll get in the coming week.

Note: The term “Final Test” is to describe the price pattern before the market makes a reversal. If you’re interested, this is explained in the book “The Secrets of Trading The First Pullback“.

13 Jul - USDSGD Weekly Forex Chart

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  • USDSGD – It’s been awhile since I mentioned the USDSGD and that’s probably because there wasn’t much to talk about. This is also because price it has been following my map since early January 2014 (see article). More importantly, price is now approaching the major support level that I spotted awhile ago. Will price break that level? Or would it bounce? There’s only one way to find out. 🙂


Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Make sure to post any questions or comments at the box below.


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