Weekly Commentary: 14th Apr 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 07 Apr 2013

Hi Readers,

As mentioned last week, I was expecting the USD index to close lower – and it did. At the moment, it looks like there is  room for the dollar to go further lower, with the next major support level being around $81.50. Let’s see if the dollar will continue short.

The following is my watch list for the week:

14 Apr - EURUSD Daily

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  • EURUSD – As mentioned on my video (see video), there is a short term resistance around 1.313 level and price closed around there on Friday. The start of the coming week should be interesting to see if price would continue long or not. Ideally, I would like a break above 1.313, followed by a pull back for a long entry (blue path), with 1.365 being the next major level.

14 Apr - AUDUSD Daily

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  • AUDUSD – This pair finally reached the major resistance that was mentioned on 31st Mar (see article).

AUDUSD is now in a very exciting position were there are 2 potential scenario that could pan out. (1) Price is within a box range (see green box) and it could either break or bounce the 1.06 resistance (see green arrows) and (2) this pair is also within a major symmetric triangle as mentioned on 7th April (see article). Since price has edge out of the downward trendline, I would like to see clear price action breaking above and pulling back to re-test the trendline before going long (see blue arrows).

At this stage, there is no clear indication of where price might go yet. Hence, I look forward to the start of the week for a direction.

 14 Apr - NZDUSD Daily

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  • NZDUSD – As mentioned on the 10th April (see article), I was expecting a bullish kiwi  – price did run but it just went like a rocket. Unfortunately, I did not find a set up.

Now, price is sitting on the top of my price channel and I to see price pull back before looking for any long entries. Having said that, it looks like it might take awhile before it happens. Even though I cannot predict the future, technical analysis has on many occasions happened like a textbook.


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