Weekly Commentary: 16th Feb 2014

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 9th Feb 2014

Hello Traders,

The USD Index moved lower this week closing the week at $80.20. As mentioned last week, price seems to be ranging within an ascending triangle. However price looks like it’s testing the lower trend line. If price continues to move lower in the coming week, then it looks like we have a bearish continuous market.

The following is my watch list for the week:

15 Feb - GBPUSD Daily Forex Charts

(Click on image for larger view)

  • GBPUSD – As mentioned last week, I am expecting price to either move higher or to drop lower. As I mentioned time and again, we are not here to predict the market but to write out a potential road map. In this case, if price moved higher and retested the level, that will be a nice long entry for me.

15 Feb - USDJPY Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDJPY – Since the peak of price in Dec 2013 (~105.4), price has slowly crawling downwards. At the moment, price is testing a soft horizontal level (~101.5). Meanwhile, price is also in a downward channel. Is the channel the start of a down trend? Or is it just a correction? Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I’m going to rely on my channel. As long as the channel is intact, my bias is short.

15 Feb - USDSGD Daily Forex Charts

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDSGD – I last looked at this pair on the 12th Jan (see article) but I didn’t get the entry I wanted, price moved higher and tested the channel one last time before moving lower. In the end, the channel was still in tact.

That’s the nature of trading – we don’t know what’s going to happen next. Meanwhile, as price starts to move lower, I will be looking for short set ups with the first target around 1.23. There’s ample space from here and, more importantly, the short bias is now in my favour.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.



  • Andy B

    February 16, 2014

    Thanks for the clear market analysis as always Alwin. Great call on EURGBP short from the false break of the Daily coiling inside bars.

    GBPAUD looks like a possible long this week from the Daily Inside bar formed Friday in a strong Bull market. Also Loonie is forming a nice bullish wedge on the Daily chart could be worth a look.

    All the best Andy

    • Alwin Ng

      February 17, 2014

      Hi Andrew,

      Good to hear from you. Thanks, EURGBP pattern was a rare breed as you don’t get a double inside + false break all the time.

      GBPAUD looks good too. In line with the bullish Cable and bearish Aussie. Good call!

Leave A Response