Weekly Commentary: 17th Mar 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 10th Mar 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index reached $83+ and made a pull back with the week closing around $82.30. But is this a pull back or is it a reversal? Who knows? And I am not here to predict the future.

So, I shall await Price Action for confirmation of what the USD will be. For now, my short term bias is a short until it reaches the next support level of around $81.50. If price bounces there, that could be a good bounce for a long continuation. If not, then we might be looking for a test at the $81 support level.

The following is my watch list for the week:

17 Mar - AUDNZD Daily

(Click on image for larger view)
  • AUDNZD – This pair is currently testing a soft resistance level (Green arrow) around 1.268. This also coincides with a weekly channel (Orange arrow). However, the minor break above the channel around July 2012 (Blue arrow) does make me slightly uncomfortable. Hence, I will be taking more precaution on this pair.

For those Fibonacci users, price is also testing a 78.2% retracement level (drawn from Nov 2012 to Feb 2013).

17 Mar - CADJPY Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • CADJPY – Looking at the daily chart above, this currency pair is currently testing a longer term resistance level around 94.1. I was not particularly interested because I prefer a resistance with multiple bounce (as oppose to just of just one touch) – until I saw a potential double top. As I write, price is testing the resistance level for the second time.

With that, I shall look for clearer direction in the early part of the coming week.

  • USDJPY – As mentioned in my commentary last week (see article), I am looking for a long continuation entry around 94.3.
  • USDCHF – Similarly, as mentioned in my commentary last week (see article),  price has now started moving south. If you missed the trade, the best entries are the pull backs.


Thank you and Happy Trading in the week ahead!!

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