Weekly Commentary: 19th Jan 2014

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 12th Jan 2014

Hello Traders,

The USD index closed the week at $81.30. As mentioned last week, I need a break above $81.50 for more confirmation of direction. Meanwhile, signs of the USD strengthening are slowing appearing but a break is a break and that will give me clarity.

The following is my watch list for the week:

19 Jan - EURUSD Weekly Forex Charts(Click on image for larger view)

  • EURUSD – Inline with the USD, this currency pair is also slowly crawling its way south. The double top which I spotted a few weeks ago (5th Jan – see article) has been working its magic as well. Took a position short and will be looking for more short set ups.

19 Jan - AUDUSD Weekly forex Charts

(Click on image for larger view)

  • AUDUSD – Also mentioned on the 5th Jan (see article), this pair broke below 0.888 and this is a strong sign that the drop since April 2013 shall continue. In fact, the weekly bar was a trend bar and that bar broke below support with strong conviction. Short set ups it is.

19 Jan - AUDNZD Weekly Forex Charts

(Click on image for larger view)

  • AUDNZD – This pair is currently testing a major support zone. In fact, the last time price reached this level was in 2008. With the bearish AUDUSD, my initial instinct was that price will go lower. However, always remember that following an instinct is a dangerous thing. Hence, I shall step aside and wait for a price action setup. Who knows what the market will provide.

19 Jan - NZDJPY Daily Forex Charts

(Click on image for larger view)

  • NZDJPY – I’ve not commented on this pair for awhile now and, frankly, there was not much to mentioned.. until now.. Looking at the pair right now, it looks to like there’s a potential wedge pattern and it looks like price could potentially break out soon. While this pair is not something that I trade often, a consolidation patterns has had a high percentage of successes. In fact, the longer price consolidates, the stronger the break. With that, I’m keeping a close watch on this as well.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.

Ps. Apologies if you received the email update on Sat for the market commentary on 12th Jan. Please ignore it as that was sent due to a technical error.



  • Frank Page

    January 19, 2014

    Hi Alwin,

    Great analysis with many good insights. I always look forward to your ideas. You have sharp eyes and a sharper mind!

    Best Regards & Success in Trading!
    Frank Page

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