Weekly Commentary: 20th July 2014

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 13th July 2014

Hello Traders,

Since the sideway market last week, the USD index had been crawling higher and closed the week around $80.60 and it was generally a sideway market – which isn’t much compared to last week. For a good confirmation of an uptrend, I need to see price moving above $81 and followed by a break above the $81.50 resistance level again with conviction. With that, let’s see what price will show us this coming week.

The following is my watch list for the week:

20 Jul - GBPUSD Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • GBPUSD – As mentioned on the 6th July (see article), I’m looking for price to move higher after a nice break above the 1.70 level. However, the truth is, no one really knows where price will turn no matter how good your analysis is. For me, the same applies. Looking back on the daily chart now, I can price retesting the level that I mentioned and this is a healthy sign IF price moves higher from here. I said “IF”, meaning price could go lower too. This is a crucial move because the probability to move higher will increase dramatically if the next move is a higher high. Either way, I’m keeping a close eye and will see what price tells me in the next few moves.

20 Jul - NZDUSD Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • NZDUSD – As shown on 29th June (see article), price was about to hit on a longer term resistance level (~0.883). While I was looking for a break above that level before moving higher, price bounced off it instead. Since then, price has moved lower and it is now back at the 0.866 level to re-test the support. Is this a pullback or is this the start of a reversal pattern? Let’s wait and see.

20 Jul - EURJPY Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • EURJPY – Since my last comment on this pair on the 18th May (see article), price have been moving nicely in my favour. When I wrote the last article, I was expecting price to move towards ~137.2 after a triangle breakout, and it did. Looking at price action now, I wonder if price will move lower? Or is price going to move higher as it bounces of that support level.

20 Jul - USDJPY Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDJPY – A quick update on Yen as it continues to consolidate.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Make sure to post any questions or comments at the box below.



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