Weekly Commentary: 20th Oct 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 13th October 2013

Hello Traders,

The USD index closed lower this week at around $79.70. In fact, the weekly bar made a new low. The bullish run I mentioned last week did not materialise and I expect to see even more bears from here. Nonetheless, I still feel that a price action pullback is due as price is slightly extended and I hope to see the price action around $79 before I get a better idea of where price is heading after this. With that, I’m keeping a close watch and quite likely to stay out of the market for now.

The following is my watch list for the week:

20 Oct - EURUSD Weekly

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  • EURUSD – I have been looking for short set ups for this currency pair on a few occasions. However, looking at the weekly chart above, price has been making Higher Lows (HL) since mid 2012 and, in August, it even broke out of the weekly channel that I have (above). Price is currently sitting at ~1.37 and it is testing the previous high. This test of the high will be significant if price moves above it. Nonetheless, price has been a little extended and I won’t be surprise if it makes a small pullback before going further north. Well, either way, I’m keeping a close watch.

20 Oct - AUDUSD Weekly

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  • AUDUSD – On 25th Sept (see article), I showed a resistance zone between 0.957-0.976. However, looking at price action on the weekly chart at the moment, this pair looks pretty bullish. If this pair makes it above 0.976 with conviction, I will be looking for a pullback set up for long continuation. Alternatively, I’ll also wait to see if I can find any short signals. Either way, this is a wait-and-see for me.

20 Oct - USDSGD Daily

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  • USDSGD – On the   22nd Sept I showed a potential set up by looking for a retest of the neckline (see article). Price is never predictable but when they do follow your road map, you must be ready. Thankfully, price went according to my road map, it was kind to me and I’m now in profit. Looking at the bigger picture, my next target is 1.226 where I see a decent support price level. Price could continue short or it might bounce, let’s see what I’ll get as price approaches that support.

20 Oct - EURNZD Daily

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  • EURNZD – On the 29th Sept (see article), I was watching for a short set up on this currency pair. To be honest, these are the days where price really tested my patience. The final signal was the high test bar on the 2nd Oct and price finally broke down on the 14th Oct. This is the reality of trading and patience is the key recipe here (Well done to those who had the patience). From here, it is likely that I’ll be looking for more shorts continuation set ups.  

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.


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