Weekly Commentary: 31st Mar 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 24th Mar 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index made a short and quick pull back at the start of the week. As mentioned last week, I was looking for a test of the $81.50 level, and it did – price poked through the $81.50 level and went straight back up. Since then, it has been moving higher. My bias is now bullish and the next near-term resistance will be at $84. Let’s see what’s price has too offer.

The following is my watch list for the week:

31 Mar - EURUSD Daily

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  • EURUSD – Price has been moving lower pretty sharply in the last few weeks. It is now approaching a reasonably strong support level. My long term bias is a short continuation and that’s based on my weekly downward channel. However, price has been pretty choppy recently which shows signs of correction. With that, I do expect price to bounce off the 1.27 level for a short pull back.

On the other hand, price has not made a new lower low since the last low (as shown above). Hence, I am not surprise at all if this bounce becomes a double bottom before it continues to rally.  Remember that anything can happen in the market.

31 Mar - AUDUSD Daily

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  • AUDUSD – As mentioned in my previously, price have moved north since the large low test bar mentioned on the 6th March (see article). The next resistance is at the top of the range which is around 1.06 price level.

However, due to the fairly strong run, price is currently retracing. Ideally, I would like to see price pull back to the 1.036 level before it continues north.

31 Mar - EURAUD Daily

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  • EURAUD – As shown above, this currency pair looks like a mirror image of the EURUSD pair. With that, my view is similar to EURUSD. I will likely compare both the pairs and take the one with the lower risk and highest return.

31 Mar - CADCHF Daily

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  • CADCHF – Price is currently testing a decent resistance level around 0.938. It is also testing the top of a downward channel. The next support down south is around 0.904 (see previous article) which gives me sufficient space for a short continuation even if it decides to bounce of the 0.904 support.

Let’s see if I can find a nic short entry at the start of the coming week.



  • British Clocks are changing this weekend due to day light saving. So do be aware of that.
  • Also, since it is the start of the new quarter, let’s see if we can gauge where the market will head in the next few weeks.

Also, for those who are Easter, Happy Easter!!! Thank you for reading and happy trading!!


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