Weekly Commentary: 6th Oct 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 29th Sept 2013

Hello Traders,

The USD index moved lower this week but with little or nearly no conviction. In fact, the Friday bar was a bullish engulfing bar. With such an extended move from the last few weeks, I would expect price to pullback about now. Is the engulfing bar the start of the pullback? I’ll be keeping a close watch.

The following is my watch list for the week:

06 Oct - USDCHF Daily

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  • USDCHF – As mentioned on 15th Sept (see article), I suggested that price would test the 0.917 support level and if that failed, the next target would have been the bottom of my channel. Price did exactly that and the Friday bar was the first sign that it was ready to head north. Meanwhile, supporting this push is also a minor support level around 0.905 as price pushed below the level but failed to hold.

06 Oct - EURAUD Daily

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  • EURAUD – Since my last commentary in 14th July (see article), I have been waiting for price to turn around before I would even consider looking at this chart. Now 3 months later, price is finally giving me something worthy again. Price reversed recently and it’s moving downwards again. In fact, it broke the old support (~1.45) and price is testing the support (now resistance) again. While price is currently in a range (clearer on 4 hour chart), it looks like a good short set up once it breaks out of the range.

06 Oct - AUDCAD Daily

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  • AUDCAD – This is a simple chart and I’m going to keep it that way. Price broke a long term support (~0.996) and now price looks like its going to test the level (now resistance) again. I’ve set my alert and I’ll be waiting for the re-test.
  • GBP and related pairs (not shown) – as mentioned on the 2nd Oct (see article), I was looking for a short in both EURUSD and GBPUSD. While EURUSD moved higher, GBPUSD moved in my favour. In fact, many GBP related pairs are doing the same thing. If you are trading many GBP related pairs, remember to consider your risk management.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.


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