Weekly Commentary: 8th June 2014

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 1st June 2014

Hello Traders,

The market is full of surprises and you get a mixed of signals once in awhile. Looking at the USD index, even though I thought that price was about to move higher, price gave me different signal. Nonetheless, the bigger picture still holds and price answered my question from last week. After testing that resistance level, price closed around $80.40 – near the close last week – and we got a high test bar on the weekly chart. Are the bears coming in? The coming week will in interesting for me.

The following is my watch list for the week:

08 Jun - EURUSD Weekly Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • EURUSD – Sometimes, it’s best to move back to the bigger picture where smaller timeframes are not very clear. This is exactly what I’m doing on the Euro. In line with the USD, price was a little confusing on the daily and I decided to close my charts instead. Looking at price on the weekly chart now, it all seems clear again that the trend line support is holding on well. Will the wedge hold on to price? Or is this a breakout? Let’s wait and see.

08 Jun - USDCHF Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDCHF – As mention on the 18th May (see article), the Swissy was testing a resistance level and I was looking for a higher high after a double bottom signal. While price did move above the 0.891 level, it did not do it with force and this makes me uncomfortable. Thursday also closed with a bearish engulfing and that was another signal for a potential short. While price is testing the neckline (it is a valid neckline despite the poor price action), I want to see more confirmation. Will I get a false break down or is the wedge break out still playing out?

08 Jun - NZDUSD Weekly Forex Chart


(Click on image for larger view)

  • NZDUSD – As mentioned last week (see article), I was looking for a retest of the neckline – a high test bar on the Friday looks like a decent signal. Looking at the bigger picture, my near term target is the next support around 0.837. If price bounce off that, I’m not surprise to see it moving back up to test the resistance level around 0.866. Alternatively, if I get a committed break, price could reach the 0.8 region.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Make sure to post any questions or comments at the box below.


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