Weekly Trade Commentary: 30th Sept 2012

The following are my observations for the week.

The USD Index has retraced a back to the 80 mark. At this point, there’s no clear indication if this is a pullback or a start of a new trend. I’m keen to find out what the market sentiment is going to be like at the start of the new month as well as the start of the final quarter of the year.

A part from that, I’m also watching:

  • Gold – I’m currently waiting to for a price action set up as it approaches the 1800 (big number) psychological price level. See chart below. For those reversal traders, there’s also a potential divergence short set up that is slowly surfacing (not shown).
(Click on Image for Larger View)
  • GBPJPY – price looks like its testing a decent support level at 125.6 (also tested in Dec 2010, Oct 2011and June 2012). There is also a good trendline to support a long trade.
  • CADJPY – similar to GBPJPY, this pair currently testing a support level at 78.9. This is also at a trendline tested early June and end of July.
  • EURNZD – The pair has already started moving south. I’ll watch this closely to wait for a pullback for a trend continuation entry. Short term resistance at 1.556 and short term support at 1.533



Don’t forget there’s the FOMC minutes on Thursday and Non-Farm Pay day on Friday.

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