Weekly Trade Commentary: 4th Nov 2012

Related article: Commentary: 28th Oct 2012

Hi Readers,

Welcome to my first weekly commentary on TradeYourEdge.com. Thank you for reading this and hope you’ll enjoy my commentaries.

Great News! The USD Index is finally on the move again. From my previous commentaries, we could see that the USD index was just range bound. As the week closes on Friday, the index made a convincing new high to close the week around 80.6 pts. With that, I’ll start paying more attention to the Majors and Minors again.

Anyway, the following is my watchlist for the coming week.

  • EURUSD – Below is a daily chart of EURUSD. As mentioned in my EURUSD post on the 23 Oct, this pair made a double top giving me a potential short view. On Wednesday, EURUSD made a nice re-test of the trendline (Green arrow) and the week closed with some strong bearish bars. For me, I’ll need a clean break outside the range (purple box) which is below 1.28 price level before I take the pair short. I’m keeping a close eye on this one.

(Click on image for Larger View)

  •  USDJPY – Below is a weekly chart of this currency pair. The week closed right below a weekly Resistance level around 80.5. My bias for this pair is long as the Yen is in the middle of an upward channel (Orange arrows). However, we’ll need some Price Action to confirm a break or a bounce off this level. If I see a clean break above the level and a pullback, that would give me a good entry.
(Click on image for Larger View)

  • USDSGD – Below is a daily chart of this currency pair. In line with the USD Index, price is currently at the bottom of a Major Price Channel (Green arrow) and potentially forming a inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. The only minor issue I have with the channel is the dip outside the channel on 28 Oct 2011. As shown, the purple box shows where price made a recent new low. Let’s see what price will do in the coming week. The nearest Resistance level is 1.234 (Orange arrow).

(Click on image for Larger View)

  • AUDNZD – this currency pair did not break the 1.266 Resistance which I mentioned on the 21st Oct Commentary. Instead, it bounced back and is not heading south. My next target for this will be around 1.236 and potentially beyond that.
  • Lastly, a quick comment on Gold and Silver – On 31st Oct, I commented on the Gold triangle consolidation pattern. Unfortunately, the precious metal made a classic false break which lost me a trade. Well done if you manage to catch the false break. My view on these 2 will are short in the coming week but I’ll need price action to confirm before taking the trade.

Note: Day light saving time shift for the Americans this weekend. Please take note.


Thank you for reading and happy Trading Week!!

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